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#HEJC for 01/04/2013 (new time!)

This month’s meeting will take place Monday 1st April, at 5pm London time. That’ll be 6pm in Cape Town and 7pm in Riga. Join the Facebook event here. We’ll also hold an antipodal meeting on Tuesday 2nd April, at 5am London time. That’ll be 2pm in Brisbane and 9pm on Monday in Seattle. Join the Facebook event here. For more information about the Health Economics Twitter Journal Club and how to take part, click here.

The paper for discussion this month is a working paper published by the Research Institute of Industrial Economics in Sweden. The authors are Sara Fogelberg and Jonas Karlsson. The title of the paper is:

“Competition and antibiotics prescription”

Following the meeting, a transcript of the discussion can be downloaded here.

Links to the article

Direct: http://www.ifn.se/wfiles/wp/wp949.pdf

RePEc: http://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/iuiwop/0949.html

Other: tbc

Summary of the paper

Antibiotics resistance is an increasingly apparent problem in medicine, with the prevalence of multi-resistant bacteria on the rise. Over-prescription of antibiotics has short- and long-term implications for public health. Furthermore, there is much debate about the role of competition in healthcare provision. This paper investigates the effect of increased competition between healthcare providers on the prescription of antibiotics. The authors hypothesise that, as a result of increased competition, doctors may be inclined to prescribe more antibiotics in order to meet patients’ demand. The study makes use of a natural experiment where competition-inducing reform was implemented in different counties in Sweden at different points in time during 2007 to 2010. The dataset contains monthly data on all prescribed antibiotics in Sweden, including those defined as narrow spectrum and broad spectrum antibiotics. The authors implement a difference in differences model. The results indicate that increased competition had a positive and significant effect on antibiotics prescription.

Discussion points

  • What is the significance of Swedish reimbursement processes?
  • What does this study tell us about patients’ and doctors’ preferences for antibiotics?
  • What are the implications for the UK and other countries?
  • How can this study inform the debate about competition in healthcare?
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Posted by on March 25, 2013 in #HEJC

 

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The Lucas critique and hospital quality

In 1976, Robert Lucas wrote a paper that articulated a common criticism of macroeconomic policy-making based on historical data. The essence of the critique was that, since the parameters of macroeconometric models were not structural, they were liable to change when other aspects of the system changed. A policy change could alter the parameters of the model; invalidating conclusions about the effects of that policy change. As one example, Lucas discussed the effect of income on consumption: a consumer, being aware of a policy change that will affect her income, will adjust her consumption with the expectation of the policy change. Thus, consumption decisions will change and will not necessarily reflect the historical relationship between income and consumption.

Lucas accepted that in the short run the estimated relationships may hold but showed that in the long run these estimated relationships were invalid. As a remedy he suggested that the focus should be on microfoundations; identifying the structural factors that determine individual decisions. But, how does this relate to hospital quality?

Estimating hospital quality is an important task for policy-makers although it is fraught with difficulty and controversy. Hospital quality may be examined in two different ways: as the effect of the hospital on the clinical outcomes of its patients (when compared to the average hospital), which we can call ‘outcomes quality’, or how well a hospital meets clinical guidelines and performs mandated tests or procedures, which we can refer to as ‘process quality’. When we conduct research into, for example, the effect of hospital volume on patient outcomes, what we are trying to uncover is how volume affects hospital outcomes quality. A policy maker wants to know how she can influence hospital quality by changing certain aspects of hospital organisation.

Recent evidence has suggested that increased competition between hospitals leads to an increase in outcomes quality, although only under fixed prices (for a recent, interesting blog on the topic including links to papers, see here). One paper showed that in areas where patients had greater choice, mortality rates and length of stay were, on average, less. This suggests that hospitals are improving in order to attract more patients. But, and this is where the Lucas critique enters, publishing information on quality will affect healthcare consumers’ decisions about which hospital to go to. Evidence is limited on the causes and correlates of hospital quality; if the higher quality hospital appears to be of high quality, its casemix, patient volume, and other variables may change. And these are the very variables that may cause the difference in hospital outcomes quality.

Studies of quality may take this change of casemix into account using appropriate controls in their analysis. In this case we may be confident that the results will hold in the short run. But, as individual preferences change, and healthcare consumers and hospitals adapt, the parameters of the model may change – they are not invariant to our policy.

Contributing to the problem, the commonly published hospital quality statistics may not be reliable. Even with casemix adjustment, the typically relied-upon measures, such as the standardised mortality ratio (SMR), may be inadequate. Mohammed et al. (2009) assessed the case mix adjustment commonly used to determine the SMR and found that, due to differences in admissions policies and coding, the effects of different variables in the casemix adjustment differed between hospitals, leading them to conclude:

“Claims that variations in hospital standardised mortality ratios from Dr Foster Unit reflect differences in quality of care are less than credible.”1

This also adds weight to the Lucas critique; these differing admissions policies will themselves be affected by a change in patient casemix that may occur due to increased competition. This would affect the validity of the casemix adjustment used in studies of hospital quality.

This is not a criticism of the validity of hospital quality studies, rather an emphasis on the importance of microfoundations. Unless we understand the factors that determine hospital quality and patient choice we cannot be sure of the long term effects of policies that, for example, affect hospital competition.

1Dr Foster Unit are one of the key providers of hospital quality stats in the UK

 
 

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Some comments on obesity

A recent post over at Ezra Klein’s excellent Wonkblog caught my attention, both for being a post about a health economics issue, but also due to comments users had posted below. The post is about a recent set of projections about obesity and reports that there are new estimates that the burden of obesity in the US, if current trends continued, will be $550 billion over the next two decades. But this could be cut by almost 10% if trends continued 5% slower than they currently do. While this raises awareness of the importance of targeting healthcare interventions at preventing obesity and the diseases associated with obesity such as diabetes, it also raises important questions about responsibility for health. The comments section raises some important points:

MikeSoja wrote:

It wouldn’t cost “us” a dime, if “we” weren’t forced to pay it.

How about fat people pay for their own problems?

This, perhaps uneloquent, point illustrates the quite common opinion that behaviour matters. Those individuals to whom a causal responsibility could be assigned for their condition, such as smokers, should have a smaller right to healthcare resources. The negative externality that arises from unhealthy food may be countered with a Pigouvian tax – fat people ‘paying for their own problems’. One country, Denmark, is already trying this by taxing butter. However, this tax is foolish – it is not butter consumption that leads to obesity! People are becoming ever more aware that it is refined carbohydrates that are more to blame. So, should a tax be placed on these products?

Obesity, and other diseases that may be viewed as being caused by personal behaviour, are more prevalent among the poor. A tax on the products consumed more by the poor (inferior goods) would be regressive and would contribute to inequality. You might argue that the (threat of) restriction to healthcare is enough to reduce consumption of these harmful goods, but, it is unlikely that that threat will make much difference, particularly since the negative effects occur in the future and time preference matters. This could lead you to the comment made by AnonymousBE1:

But, if obesity affects mortality, which it does on average, then there will be huge cost savings in terms of unpaid Social Security and other pensions. In addition, people who live longer do not have less expensive final years – it’s just that those final years come later. Obesity is a quality of life issue, but I am not convinced that it is a fiscal issue….

This is a salient point, and it is something which health economists know much about. But as liamdc710 points out (in not a strictly polite way):

Your analysis is as stupid as those who say smokers save people money because they die young from cancer. In fact, far fewer than half of smokers die from cancer at an age younger than the national life expectancy. For the majority of obese Americans, much like smokers, insurance companies, families, and the public health systems in place will see increasing expenditures on related diseases that require expensive life long treatment.

To which AnonymousBE1 replied:

Okay, well, there needs to be comparison studies of LIFETIME expenses, medical and pension and disability.

I think this final point is something on which most economists would agree. But, even if costs are greater for the obese, does this mean they have less of a right to quality of life?

Many commentators ascribe to a luck egalitarian point of view whereby health differences that are due to sheer luck should be ‘evened out’ after which personal responsibility should play a role – we should be responsible for the consequences of our actions. It is what John Roemer calls ‘the cost of freedom’. However, how individuals respond to the same diet or lifestyle is often a matter of sheer luck; an individual’s genetic lot plays a big role in their propensity for obesity or the damage they receive from alcohol, for example. Separating luck from behaviour is highly difficult, if not impossible. Furthermore, saying that an individual ought to behave in a certain way or else face the consequences does not necessarily mean that an individual can behave in that way.

arm3a posted:

Man, is this troubling. Looks like a Pigouvian moment to me.

Perhaps it is, but I think it comes down to what you view the function of the health system to be. Some view it as an insurance system. So those most likely to require healthcare should pay more which could be funded by such a Pigouvian tax. But, I believe a national healthcare system acts more as a system of redistribution. As I have mentioned in a previous post, health is a special good and a precondition for achieving any of the things we have reason to want in life. The socioeconomic differences in unhealthy behaviours are large. Working class men smoke more than the middle classes. But these differences in behaviour only account for some of the socioeconomic differences in health outcomes. We should see reducing inequalities as a greater social responsibility than punishing those who become ill partly as a result of their behaviour.

 

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