Chris Sampson’s journal round-up for 23rd April 2018

Every Monday our authors provide a round-up of some of the most recently published peer reviewed articles from the field. We don’t cover everything, or even what’s most important – just a few papers that have interested the author. Visit our Resources page for links to more journals or follow the HealthEconBot. If you’d like to write one of our weekly journal round-ups, get in touch.

What should we know about the person behind a TTO? The European Journal of Health Economics [PubMed] Published 18th April 2018

The time trade-off (TTO) is a staple of health state valuation. Ask someone to value a health state with respect to time and – hey presto! – you have QALYs. This editorial suggests that completing a TTO can be a difficult task for respondents and that, more importantly, individuals’ characteristics may determine the way that they respond and therefore the nature of the results. One of the most commonly demonstrated differences, in this respect, is the fact that valuations of people’s own health states tend to be higher than health states valued hypothetically. But this paper focuses on indirect (hypothetical) valuations. The authors highlight mixed evidence for the influence of age, gender, marital status, having children, education, income, expectations about the future, and of one’s own health state. But why should we try and find out more about respondents when conducting TTOs? The authors offer 3 reasons: i) to inform sampling, ii) to inform the design and standardisation of TTO exercises, and iii) to inform the analysis. I agree – we need to better understand these sources of heterogeneity. Not to over-engineer responses, but to aid our interpretation, even if we want societally-representative valuations that include all of these variations in response behaviour. TTO valuation studies should collect data relating to the individual respondents. Unfortunately, what those data should be aren’t listed in this study, so the research question in the title isn’t really answered. But maybe that’s something the authors have in hand.

Computer modeling of diabetes and its transparency: a report on the eighth Mount Hood Challenge. Value in Health Published 9th April 2018

The Mount Hood Challenge is a get-together for people working on the (economic) modelling of diabetes. The subject of the 2016 meeting was transparency, with two specific goals: i) to evaluate the transparency of two published studies, and ii) to develop a diabetes-specific checklist for transparent reporting of modelling studies. Participants were tasked (in advance of the meeting) with replicating the two published studies and using the replicated models to evaluate some pre-specified scenarios. Both of the studies had some serious shortcomings in the reporting of the necessary data for replication, including the baseline characteristics of the population. Five modelling groups replicated the first model and seven groups replicated the second model. Naturally, the different groups made different assumptions about what should be used in place of missing data. For the first paper, none of the models provided results that matched the original. Not even close. And the differences between the results of the replications – in terms of costs incurred and complications avoided – were huge. The performance was a bit better on the second paper, but hardly worth celebrating. In general, the findings were fear-confirming. Informed by these findings, the Diabetes Modeling Input Checklist was created, designed to complement existing checklists with more general applications. It includes specific data requirements for the reporting of modelling studies, relating to the simulation cohort, treatments, costs, utilities, and model characteristics. If you’re doing some modelling in diabetes, you should have this paper to hand.

Setting dead at zero: applying scale properties to the QALY model. Medical Decision Making [PubMed] Published 9th April 2018

In health state valuation, whether or not a state is considered ‘worse than dead’ is heavily dependent on methodological choices. This paper reviews the literature to answer two questions: i) what are the reasons for anchoring at dead=0, and ii) how does the position of ‘dead’ on the utility-scale impact on decision making? The authors took a standard systematic approach to identify literature from databases, with 7 papers included. Then the authors discuss scale properties and the idea that there are interval scales (such as temperature) and ratio scales (such as distance). The difference between these is the meaningfulness of the reference point (or origin). This means that you can talk about distance doubling, but you can’t talk about temperature doubling, because 0 metres is not arbitrary, whereas 0 degrees Celsius is. The paper summarises some of the arguments put forward for using dead=0. They aren’t compelling. The authors argue that the duration part of the QALY (i.e. time) needs to have ratio properties for the QALY model to function. Time obviously holds this property and it’s clear that duration can be anchored at zero. The authors then demonstrate that, for the QALY model to work, the health-utility scale must also exhibit ratio scale properties. The basis for this is the assumption that zero duration nullifies health states and that ‘dead’ nullifies duration. But the paper doesn’t challenge the conceptual basis for using dead in health state valuation exercises. Rather, it considers the mathematical properties that must hold to allow for dead=0, and asserts them. The authors’ conclusion that dead “needs to have the value of 0 in a QALY model” is correct, but only within the existing restrictions and assumptions underlying current practice. Nevertheless, this is a very useful study for understanding the challenge of anchoring and explicating the assumptions underlying the QALY model.



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